The corona epidemic almost certainly did not start in December, although it may have been concentrated in Wuhan. It more likely that the specific Corona virus, Covid 19 was isolated in December, in the laboratory in Wuhan in the midst of an epidemic of an atypical flu-like illness.
The Chinese had likely noticed a large number of cases of an unusual pattern of respiratory viral illness and recognised a new disease. Hence they began the process of isolating and identifying the virus causing this new disease. This process takes months. One of the reasons the flu vaccine arrives half way through the flu season.
The epidemic was all but over by the time the Chinese found their virus. And by that time the virus was well established in their population.
In the meantime, the virus meantime had already spread worldwide, especially places like London and other centres of international travel, with large numbers of flights between here and China
At the moment the rate of infection is directly related to the rate of testIng. More tests, more infections. Far too few tests are being done to establish any kind of epidemiological baseline or pattern of illness. It is impossible even to know the rate of infection in any given population.
I have met a significant number of people who have had what appears to be coronavirus, caught following a flight from China or else where from September of last year.
The Chinese have an unhealthy habit of keeping ducks on top of swine, and any other livestock. They then live amongst these animals. This provides ideal conditions for viruses to move from one species to another and cause new diseases. This is not a conspiracy by Americans or the Chinese to wage a biological war. It exemplifies the need for the Chinese to improve their animal husbandry, before more people die from diseases caused by unhygienic animal practices.
To understand this epidemic and predict the next stage, we need a test which demonstrates whether people have already been infected. That means looking at the antibodies which are markers of a past infection in order to track historic cases. And that will enable a more accurate picture of the timeline of the epidemic and infectivity of Covid 19 to be established.
I believe the government is developing such a test, at least there were hints at this.
In the meantime, I am enjoying the empty skies, the empty roads and the lack of air pollution!